A Different Take On Sports Betting

Like most people placing a sports wager you are probably looking for some sort of edge, something you can use to better ensure that the sports bets that you make have a better chance of working out in your favor. Yet that being said, have you considered an alternative approach, an approach that is not so much about a particular sports betting strategy so much? Instead, the sort of sports betting know how that takes a good hard look at how much you wager and why.

With that in mind, perhaps it is time you learned about a sports betting formula that may not be so well known, but that is considered highly effective if used correctly. This formula is known as the Kelly Criterion. What you need to know is that the Kelly Criterion or one of its varieties is set up so that you calculate the proportion of your own funds based on an outcome whose odds are higher than expected. The end result is that if the Kelly Criterion works as planned, your own funds can grow exponentially.

The mathematical formula for the Kelly Criterion looks like this: (bp-q)/b where b represents the odds minus 1, p represents the probability of success and q equals the probability of failure. Truth be told, the formula for using the Kelly Criterion is rather simple. Take a look at a simple example of placing a wager on a coin toss.

Suppose you want to wager on a coin toss landing on heads at 2.00. It turns out that this coin is a bit biased and so you have a 52% chance of landing on heads. So plugging those numbers into the formula you have: (0.52x1-0.48)/1 = 0.04. What does that 0.04 tell you?

According to the Kelly Criterion, a positive result means you you have an edge so you would then wager 4% of your bankroll. Based on this sort of scenario, you can see how your bankroll could end up growing at an exponential rate.

Understand that quite a number of very smart folks clearly state that the Kelly Criterion offers a distinct advantage over other so-called betting strategies such as Fibnoacci and Arbitrage methods. This is because the Kelly Criterion strategy is by nature a lower risk strategy. That being said, you can readily understand that you need to take the time to make sure the calculations are done precisely.