Little Understood Sports Betting Strategy

Chances are you have come across the term ‘wisdom of the crowds’. This term shows up quite frequently in the investing world and almost as frequently in the world of sports betting. The question of the day is whether or not the so-called wisdom of the crowds is a sports betting strategy you can count on or is it more of a way of explaining unexpected results after the fact. How about a closer look?

Start with a clear definition so everyone is on the same page. The wisdom of the crowd works by bringing together estimates from a wide variety of people. These estimates are then averaged together to produce a result that is more often than not startling accurate within a certain margin. You can see how this comes about when you step back a moment and realize that if the group interviewed is of sufficient size (statistically significant is the word the math geeks use), then an equal number will over estimate and underestimate. The end result is the wisdom of the crowd answer.

One way to get this concept once and for all is take a common situation you are apt to find at a county fair or charity event. You have seen this sort of thing before. There is a glass jar filled with different colored glass beads or perhaps even different colors of candy. The object is to accurately figure out the exact number. Here’s the thing to understand; the best strategy for this sort of thing is to hang back a bit and record the various guesses. Then as close as possible to the last minute, you average up the previous estimates and arrive at a number that may very well win you the prize.

So what about sports betting? Does this sort of thing work for determining the best sports bet? Yes and No. Not the answer you may want to hear, but there it is. Why so? It turns out that it does matter who provides the estimates. For example, consider the case of wisdom of the crowd when the crowd consists of a mix of rank amateurs combined with the professional sports books.

Will you get any sort of answer that makes sense? Actually it depends on the liquidity of that sports betting market. In sports betting, the more liquid a market happens to be, the more you can rely on the wisdom of the crowd. That means such venues as the big soccer leagues, major league sports and that sort of thing.

Bottom line: wisdom of the crowd can work for you if you take a little bit of time to understand the subtleties of this sports betting strategy.

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