Need to Know: Sports Betting Wisdom Heresy

As you probably know, sports betting is a multibillion dollar industry, both online and offline. Sports betting attracts all sorts of players, from the casual weekend wager on the favorite ball team score on Saturday afternoon to those that become experts or even professionals at sports betting. Despite the size of this industry, until recently there has not been a lot of significant research on how to make the right bet. In other words, is there a real strategy that one who wants to wager on a sporting event can use? Or is it really all up to the luck of the draw?

You may have noticed that we are literally swimming in data lately. If you want to find out any detail, no matter how minute, about a sports wager, chances are that data is available somewhere. Yes, there may be a price attached to some data, but the information is there somewhere. Yet, the availability of all this data might be masking the real problem.

Here is what you may not know, the other side of the story, the real truth about all this information. Maybe you don’t actually need all that data, all those detailed analytical reports and projections after all. Yes, this may sound like heresy to some in the sports betting world, but you will want to pay real close attention to the next few lines here.

You see, a research team at Korea University Business School just completed an exhaustive study. They analyzed a tad more than a billion sports bets (yes, that’s billion with a big ‘B’). The researcher, Song-Oh Yoon, along with his colleagues came to a startling conclusion about sports wagers. Their findings make it pretty clear that by focusing on the details, these same details might actually be factored more heavily in your decision, whether you are aware of this or not. In other words, you may be unnecessarily assigning these details a greater importance than they truly deserve.

The researchers went on to state it this way. By focusing on minute details, a player may lose sight of the big picture. Here is an easy to understand illustration, straight from their research findings. Those who wager on simple win/lose scenarios significantly win more than those who wager on specific scores.

Bottom line: Don’t get lost in the details. The ‘gut’ feeling you have about a sports bet is more likely to be a winner than pages of statistics.

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