Win Rate; What’s In A Name?

Naturally, if you have been around the online sports betting or online casino world for any length of time you have encountered the term “win rate”. Sure, that’s a term that sounds so simple and easy. It means exactly what it says right? Let’s take a closer look.

It goes without saying, but let’s go ahead and say it anyway. The online gambling world, especially the sports betting world is flooded with percentages. Try these: win percentage, theoretical win percentage, hold percentage, house advantage to name just a few. Hint: house advantage is the same thing as theoretical win percentage. In the world of online slot machine games, hold percentage is most often equivalent to win percentage. In other words, in the cases just mentioned, there are multiple terms used to express the same thing.

Not so with win rate measurements. You can see clearly how this works if you take another look at the the so-called house advantage. The house advantage may also be referred to as the house edge, the theoretical win percentage or even the expected win percentage. Confused yet? Hold on, it gets crystal clear very quick from here on out.

Suppose you look at the game of double-zero roulette. Over the long term, the house edge (or any of the other equivalent terms just mentioned above) in double-zero roulette will be 5.3%. However, in the shorter term, such as the time you are there playing, the actual real world win percentage will most likely not equal the long term house edge. In fact, it might not even be close.

From there, the actual win percentage can be calculated by simply dividing the actual win by the handle. The law of averages (called the law of large numbers by the math geeks) tells us that as more and more gameplay happens, the actual win percentage will get closer and closer to the theoretical win percentage.

Is your head spinning yet? It may sound overly complex if explained in as much detail as you see above. However, there are only a few things you need to keep in mind. It starts with the house advantage, which is the exact same thing as the theoretical win advantage. Next is the hold percentage which is win divided by drop while win percentage is win over handle. Finally, the win percentage gets closer and closer to the house advantage as the number of plays increases.

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